A total of 20140 participants were included in this study. At baseline, the mean age of all participants were 58.2 years, 49.4% were male (Table 1). And 6123 (30.4%) participants were robust, 10436 (51.8%) prefrailty, and 3581 (17.8%) frailty. Compared to the robust group, participants in the frailty group were on average older, tended to be females, illiterate, not current smokers, not current drinkers, and sleep < 6 or > 8 hours.
Table 1
Baseline characteristics of participants according to frailty states groups
| Characteristics | All (n = 20140) | Robust (n = 6123) | Prefrailty (n = 10436) | Frailty (n = 3581) | P Value |
| Age, mean (SD) | 58.2 (9.5) | 56.2 (9.0) | 58.1 (9.3) | 61.8 (10.1) | 0.038 |
| Gender, n (%) | | | | | < 0.001 |
| Male | 9942 (49.4) | 3547 (57.9) | 5040 (48.3) | 1355 (37.8) | |
| Female | 10198 (50.6) | 2576 (42.1) | 5396 (51.7) | 2226 (62.2) | |
| Residence areas, n (%) | | | | | < 0.001 |
| Urban | 8184 (40.6) | 2650 (43.3) | 4356 (41.7) | 1178 (32.9) | |
| Rural | 11956 (59.4) | 3473 (56.7) | 6080 (58.3) | 2403 (67.1) | |
| Marital status, n (%) | | | | | < 0.001 |
| Married | 16722 (83.0) | 5309 (86.7) | 8666 (83.0) | 2747 (76.7) | |
| Others* | 3418 (17.0) | 814 (13.3) | 1770 (17.0) | 834 (23.3) | |
| Highest educational levels, n (%) | | | | | < 0.001 |
| Literate | 14985 (74.4) | 4915 (80.3) | 7839 (75.1) | 2231 (62.3) | |
| Illiterate | 5155 (25.6) | 1208 (19.7) | 2597 (24.9) | 1350 (37.7) | |
| Smoking status, n (%) | | | | | < 0.001 |
| Not current smokers | 11907 (59.1) | 3380 (55.2) | 6170 (59.1) | 2357 (65.8) | |
| Current smokers | 8233 (40.9) | 2743 (44.8) | 4266 (40.9) | 1224 (34.2) | |
| Drinking status, n (%) | | | | | < 0.001 |
| Not current drinkers | 13269 (65.9) | 3559 (58.1) | 6965 (66.7) | 2745 (76.7) | |
| Current drinkers | 6871 (34.1) | 2564 (41.9) | 3471 (33.3) | 836 (23.4) | |
| Sleep times, n (%) | | | | | < 0.001 |
| 6-8h | 12526 (62.2) | 4384 (71.6) | 6502 (62.3) | 1640 (45.8) | |
| < 6h,>8h | 7614 (37.8) | 1739 (28.4) | 3934 (37.7) | 1941 (54.2) | |
| Note: Data were expressed as mean ± standard deviation or frequency (proportion); |
| One-way ANOVA was used to compare the continuous variables of each frailty states group. |
| Pearson’s χ2 test was used to compare categorical variables of each frailty states group. |
| *Others include married but not living with spouse temporarily for reasons such as work, separated, divorced, widowed, and never married. |
In this study, participants were followed for a ten-year period, and dynamic transitions in their frailty states were recorded (Table S2). For participants who were currently robust, 55.2% remained robust at the next follow-up, 38.4% progressed to a prefrailty state, 4.2% progressed to a frailty state, and 2.2% transitioned to death at the next follow-up. The frailty state transition intensities and mean sojourn times are shown in Table S3. The transition intensity for participants in the robust state to the prefrailty (0.301, 0.293–0.309) was 2.2 times greater than the transition intensity for participants in the prefrailty state to the frailty state (0.136, 0.132–0.139). The intensity of the transition from a frailty state to a prefrailty state (0.217, 0.210–0.224) was 1.5 times greater than the intensity of the transition from a participant in a prefrailty state to a robust state (0.146, 0.142–0.151). For mean sojourn time, the longest stay was in the frailty state (3.880 years), followed by 3.425 years in the prefrailty state, and 3.247 years in the robust state.
The transition probabilities of frailty states within 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year observation intervals were estimated (Table 2). For participants in the robust state, the 1-year transition probabilities from robust to prefrailty, frailty, and death were 0.226, 0.015, and 0.008, whereas the 10-year probabilities increased to 0.429, 0.208, and 0.122, respectively. The probability of frailty deterioration and transition to death was significantly higher in individuals aged ≥ 60 years compared to those aged 45–60. Additionally, females exhibited a higher likelihood of frailty progression but a lower probability of transition to death than males (Supplementary Tables S4-S5).
Table 2
Transition probabilities of frailty states within 1, 3, 5, and 10-year observation intervals
| | 1-year | | 3-year | | 5-year | | 10-year |
| Robust | Prefrailty | Frailty | Death | | Robust | Prefrailty | Frailty | Death | | Robust | Prefrailty | Frailty | Death | | Robust | Prefrailty | Frailty | Death | |
| Robust | 0.751 | 0.226 | 0.015 | 0.008 | | 0.481 | 0.409 | 0.082 | 0.027 | | 0.356 | 0.451 | 0.142 | 0.051 | | 0.241 | 0.429 | 0.208 | 0.122 | |
| Prefrailty | 0.110 | 0.774 | 0.104 | 0.012 | | 0.199 | 0.562 | 0.198 | 0.041 | | 0.219 | 0.482 | 0.227 | 0.072 | | 0.209 | 0.414 | 0.228 | 0.150 | |
| Frailty | 0.012 | 0.167 | 0.784 | 0.037 | | 0.064 | 0.317 | 0.524 | 0.095 | | 0.110 | 0.364 | 0.386 | 0.140 | | 0.162 | 0.366 | 0.247 | 0.225 | |
Table 3 presents the HRs and 95% CIs for the associations between sociodemographic and behavioral factors and frailty state transitions. Increasing age was associated with higher risk of deteriorate transition (robust to prefrailty, HR = 1.010; prefrailty to frailty, HR = 1.020) and death transition (robust to death, HR = 1.097; prefrailty to death, HR = 1.084; frailty to death, HR = 1.100) and lower likelihood of recovery transition (prefrailty to robust, HR = 0.987; frailty to prefrailty, HR = 0.986). Compared to males, females were at higher risk of deteriorate transition (robust to prefrailty, HR = 1.252; prefrailty to frailty, HR = 1.394) and lower likelihood of recovery transition (prefrailty to robust, HR = 0.779; frailty to prefrailty, HR = 0.835); nevertheless, females were at lower risk of progressing to death (robust to death, HR = 0.454; prefrailty to death, HR = 0.574; frailty to death, HR = 0.482). Compared to urban residence, rural residence had higher risk of deteriorate transition (robust to prefrailty, HR = 1.172; prefrailty to frailty, HR = 1.336). Compared to married, participants in other marital status were at increased risk of transition to death, i.e., prefrailty to death (HR = 1.390), frailty to death (HR = 1.295); they were also at lower probability of recovery transition, i.e., frailty to prefrailty (HR = 0.914). Compared to being literate, illiterate participants were at increased risk for deterioration and death transition (prefrailty to frailty, HR = 1.207; frailty to death, HR = 1.386).
Table 3
Hazard radios and 95% confidence intervals of covariates on transitions among frailty states transitions
| Covariates | Recovery transition | | Deteriorate transition | | Death transition |
| Prefrailty→Robust | Frailty→Prefrailty | | Robust→Prefrailty | Prefrailty→Frailty | | Robust→Death | Prefrailty→Death | Frailty→Death |
| Age, continuous | 0.987 (0.984,0.991) | 0.986 (0.982,0.990) | | 1.010 (1.006,1.013) | 1.020 (1.016,1.023) | | 1.097 (1.072,1.124) | 1.084 (1.067,1.101) | 1.100 (1.090,1.110) |
| Gender (ref = Male) | | | | | | | | |
| Female | 0.779 (0.708,0.857) | 0.835 (0.752,0.926) | | 1.252 (1.147,1.367) | 1.394 (1.268,1.533) | | 0.454 (0.242,0.850) | 0.574 (0.373,0.885) | 0.482 (0.390,0.595) |
| Residence areas (ref = Urban) | | | | | | | | |
| Rural | 1.228 (1.151,1.310) | 1.074 (0.996,1.157) | | 1.172 (1.107,1.242) | 1.336 (1.255,1.423) | | 0.969 (0.631,1.488) | 1.038 (0.809,1.332) | 0.984 (0.844,1.148) |
| Marital status (ref = Married) | | | | | | | | |
| Others* | 1.023 (0.939,1.114) | 0.914 (0.838,0.996) | | 1.038 (0.959,1.123) | 0.992 (0.920,1.070) | | 1.188 (0.720,1.960) | 1.390 (1.054,1.834) | 1.295 (1.110,1.512) |
| Highest educational levels (ref = Literate) | | | | | | | |
| Illiterate | 1.397 (1.289,1.514) | 1.019 (0.940,1.104) | | 1.068 (0.991,1.152) | 1.207 (1.124,1.296) | | 1.273 (0.781,2.075) | 1.140 (0.828,1.569) | 1.386 (1.179,1.630) |
| Smoking status (ref = Not current smokers) | | | | | | | | |
| Current smokers | 0.899 (0.822,0.983) | 0.865 (0.782,0.956) | | 1.068 (0.985,1.159) | 1.108 (1.013,1.212) | | 0.860 (0.525,1.409) | 2.183 (1.501,3.175) | 1.107 (0.913,1.342) |
| Drinking status (ref = Not current drinkers) | | | | | | | | |
| Current drinkers | 1.068 (0.995,1.147) | 1.191 (1.096,1.294) | | 0.978 (0.917,1.044) | 0.924 (0.859,0.994) | | 0.902 (0.562,1.450) | 0.683 (0.519,0.899) | 0.678 (0.558,0.824) |
| Sleep times (ref = 6-8h) | | | | | | | | |
| < 6h,>8h | 0.929 (0.871,0.991) | 0.856 (0.799,0.918) | | 1.166 (1.098,1.237) | 1.228 (1.157,1.304) | | 1.545 (0.962,2.482) | 1.078 (0.827,1.405) | 0.911 (0.785,1.058) |
| Note: Bold fonts data represent statistical significance (P ≤ 0.05). |
| In marital status: *Others include married but not living with spouse temporarily for reasons such as work, separated, divorced, widowed, and never married. |
Compared to not current smokers, current smokers increased the risk of deterioration transition and transition to death, i.e., prefrailty to frailty (HR = 1.108), prefrailty to death (HR = 2.183), they were also at lower probability of recovery transition (prefrailty to robust, HR = 0.899; frailty to prefrailty, HR = 0.865). Compared to not current drinkers, current drinkers were at higher likelihood of recovery transition (frailty to prefrailty, HR = 1.191), they were also at lower risk of deterioration and death transition, i.e., prefrailty to frailty (HR = 0.924), prefrailty to death (HR = 0.683), frailty to death (HR = 0.678). As compared to sleep times of 6–8 hours, sleep times of < 6 or > 8 hours were at higher risk of deterioration transition (robust to prefrailty, HR = 1.166; prefrailty to frailty, HR = 1.228), they were also at lower probability of recovery transition, i.e., prefrailty to robust (HR = 0.929), frailty to prefrailty (HR = 0.856).
The results of the age- and sex-stratified analysis were largely consistent with the primary analysis (Supplementary Table S6-S9). The fitting of the MSM model for the frailty state is shown in Figure S1. The two curves, the expected frequency dashed line and the observed frequency solid line, tended to coincide, thus the model fit well.